Eye-popping New York State Power Trends
Randy Wolken, President & CEO
The New York State electric system began in New York City in 1882 with the activation of Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street station. This first power plant marked the beginning of what would eventually be the grid-based electric system we know today and would transform the city, our state, and eventually, the entire world. Innovation and economic growth were the fruits of bringing precious electricity for the first time to homes and businesses, eventually leading to the construction of public transportation, high-rise buildings, and modern, advanced manufacturing facilities that supported massive economic prosperity.
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) recently released its annual power trends report on our electric grid. I highly encourage reading the entire report to get an understanding of just how challenged our electric grid has become.
As you’ll see in the report, this vital system is under ever-increasing stress that must be addressed to assimilate the massive reindustrialization underway in our country and state. Key power trends need to be understood, and appropriate action must be taken to preserve and grow our capacity for investment in manufacturing. As you well know, manufacturing jobs are good-paying and sustainable. Thousands of manufacturing jobs here in our state, as well as new job commitments by existing and future manufacturers, will transform our communities on a scale not witnessed in our lifetimes.
Below are the key power trends you should familiarize yourself with.
First, generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Electrification programs and new large-load customers associated with economic development initiatives push the projected demand higher. These forces are also narrowing reliability margins across New York and increasing the risk of future reliability needs.
Second, repowering aging power plants can lower emissions, meet rising consumer demand, and provide the grid with the reliability benefits needed to integrate additional clean energy resources.
Third, driven by public policies, new supply, load, and transmission projects seek to interconnect to the grid at record levels. NYISO’s interconnection processes continue to evolve to balance developer flexibility with the need to manage the process to more stringent timeframes. New procedures have been implemented to accelerate the process while protecting grid reliability.
Fourth, as public policy goals seek to decarbonize the grid, fossil fuel generation will be needed for reliable power system operations until its capabilities can be supplied by other resources. Energy efficiency and Demand-Side Management (DSM) will continue to play a key role in reducing energy consumption, lowering costs, and mitigating environmental impacts.
Fifth, New York State is projected to become a winter-peaking electric system by the 2040s, driven primarily by the electrification of space heating and transportation. On the coldest days, natural gas availability for power generation can be limited, and interruptions to natural gas supply will introduce further challenges for reliable electric grid operations.
Finally, large energy-intensive economic development projects are driving up electricity demand. Over the last decade, demand for electricity in New York has been relatively flat as energy efficiency programs counterbalanced increased demand from homes and businesses across the state. While recent demand forecasts have lowered expectations of how quickly electrification measures are being adopted, the building and transportation sectors are expected to increase pressure on the system.
Economic development projects like microchip fabrication and data centers are projected to be major drivers of load growth. The number of new interconnection requests from large loads has grown dramatically in just a few years. In 2022, six large load projects in the interconnection queue accounted for 1,045 MW. As of April 2025, 20 large load projects are in the queue, which would collectively add nearly 4,400 MW of load to the grid. Load forecasters anticipate that as much as roughly 2,500 MW of that new demand will be on the system by 2035. The increased forecasted demand poses a significant challenge to grid reliability in New York State.
It’s important to remember that the competitive wholesale electricity markets administered by the NYISO support reliability while minimizing consumer costs. Competitive wholesale markets are essential to a reliable, affordable, and cleaner grid of the future. We must do all we can to support a state-of-the-art grid to ensure our economic prosperity.
Please join MACNY in our efforts to promote sound approaches to maintaining and expanding this vital system. Manufacturing isn’t possible without available, safe, reliable, high-quality, and affordable energy. Stay tuned for additional messages on how you can help advocate for securing power for your needs and for the entire community.