Turn Manufacturing Momentum into Sustained Investment
Randy Wolken, President & CEO

Manufacturing is showing encouraging signs of renewed strength. After an extended period of uncertainty, new orders are increasing, shipments are accelerating, and employment continues to expand. In the latest New York Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the general business conditions index rose, new orders increased, shipments climbed – their highest level in four years – and employment reached its strongest level since December 2022.

But stronger demand is only part of the story. The central challenge is whether manufacturers will have enough confidence to make the long-term capital investments needed to sustain growth. Without that shift, today’s momentum could become tomorrow’s missed opportunity.

That is why one finding deserves special attention: only about 28 percent of manufacturers expect to increase capital expenditures over the next six months.

While that is an improvement from earlier this year, it remains a modest level for a period of improving manufacturing conditions. Other indicators reinforce the concern: delivery times are lengthening, supply availability remains constrained, and input costs continue to rise.

Manufacturing competitiveness is built not only on today’s production but on tomorrow’s capacity. Decisions to purchase equipment, invest in robotics, modernize facilities, expand production, or hire skilled talent compound over time into higher productivity, better-paying jobs, stronger supply chains, and greater economic resilience.

Many companies are willing to increase production using existing assets, but they remain cautious about committing major capital to future growth. That hesitation is understandable.

Manufacturers continue to navigate uncertainty around energy affordability, grid reliability, tax competitiveness, workforce availability, permitting timelines, regulatory complexity, and global supply chains. While demand appears stronger, many executives remain cautious about investments that may take years to generate returns.

For New York manufacturers, these concerns are especially significant. Industrial electricity prices remain high, major projects often face lengthy permitting timelines, and manufacturers continue to report difficulty finding skilled workers. Many companies are asking not whether demand exists, but whether the overall business climate justifies long-term investment.

Confidence, not simply demand, is what unlocks long-term commitment. Transformational projects like Micron and other advanced manufacturing investments deserve attention. But even investments of that scale will reach their full potential only if thousands of existing suppliers and manufacturers throughout New York also modernize, automate, and expand. Those investments – additive manufacturing, modernized equipment, apprenticeship programs, digital technologies, facility expansions, and energy improvements – will determine how much of this historic opportunity remains in New York.

This presents both an opportunity and a responsibility. If New York wants to capture this growth, it must reduce the barriers that keep manufacturers from investing. That means reliable and affordable energy, predictable permitting, competitive tax policy, workforce development, infrastructure improvements, and regulatory certainty. It also means helping manufacturers access capital, adopt advanced technologies, and prepare their workforce for the next generation of production.

Orders may fill today’s production schedule, but capital investment determines whether companies can compete five and ten years from now. Regions that remove barriers today will capture tomorrow’s factories, technologies, and jobs.

For policymakers, the message is clear. Public policy should reinforce – not weaken – the certainty needed for private-sector investment. Manufacturers need to know that New York is committed to being a competitive place to build, expand, innovate, and hire for decades to come.

The encouraging data from the New York Fed should be viewed as the beginning of a conversation, not its conclusion. Stronger orders are creating momentum. The next challenge is turning that momentum into expanded production, advanced technologies, higher productivity, and additional employment.

That transformation will require leadership from manufacturers, partnerships across industry and education, thoughtful public policy, and organizations like MACNY continuing to champion an environment where businesses have confidence to invest.

Now is the moment to act. New York has an opportunity unlike any it has seen in generations — from Micron and semiconductor manufacturing to defense, aerospace, clean energy, food processing, life sciences, and advanced materials. The question is no longer whether demand is returning. The question is whether we will create conditions that encourage manufacturers to invest while the opportunity is in front of us.

The choice is clear: let this moment pass or turn it into the foundation for New York’s next generation of manufacturing growth.